Almeria vs AD Ceuta FC Prediction - 1st February 2026

The Segunda División serves up a fascinating mid-table clash as sixth-placed Almeria host tenth-placed AD Ceuta FC, with just a single point separating the sides. On paper, this looks like a tight encounter, but the underlying data screams one thing: goals. Both teams arrive with defensive vulnerabilities and attacking intent, setting the stage for an entertaining affair. Almeria's recent form is a major concern for their supporters. They've managed just two wins in their last ten outings, picking up a meagre 0.80 points per game. Their defensive solidity has evaporated, conceding 17 goals in that period at a rate of 1.70 per game. At home, the story isn't much brighter, with just one win in their last four at their own stadium (a 3-2 victory over Granada CF). They've lost to Deportivo La Coruna (1-2) and Burgos (1-2) on home soil recently, highlighting their struggles. Crucially, they've kept only one clean sheet in their last ten matches. In contrast, AD Ceuta FC are in much healthier shape. They've collected 1.70 points per game over their last ten, winning five of those fixtures. Their 3-2 victory over Almeria back in November will give them a significant psychological edge. While their away form shows a mixed bag (one win, one draw, two losses in their last four on the road), they've proven they can score anywhere, netting three times in a win at Real Sociedad II. Like their hosts, clean sheets are a rarity for Ceuta, managing just one in their last ten games. The head-to-head record, though limited to just one meeting this season, points towards an open game. That 3-2 thriller in Ceuta's favour saw both teams find the net and five goals shared. This pattern is heavily supported by the season's trends. Almeria have seen both teams score in a staggering 80% of their last ten matches. For AD Ceuta FC, it's 70%. When you combine an attack that scores 1.30 goals per game (Almeria) with one that nets 1.50 (Ceuta), and pair it with defences conceding 1.70 and 1.30 respectively, the recipe for goals is clear. Digging into the advanced metrics, Almeria dominates possession (56.4% average) but with poor shot accuracy (37.4%). Ceuta are more clinical with their fewer chances, boasting a 46.9% shot accuracy. This efficiency in front of goal, against Almeria's leaky back line, is a key narrative. The goal expectancy models point to a combined 2.63 goals, reinforcing the high-scoring environment. **Key Points:** * **Form Contrast:** Almeria are in a deep slump (2 wins in 10), while Ceuta are in respectable form (5 wins in 10). * **Defensive Frailties:** Both teams keep clean sheets in only 10% of their recent games. * **BTTS Machine:** Almeria's matches feature both teams scoring 80% of the time; Ceuta's sit at 70%. * **Head-to-Head:** The only previous meeting this season finished 3-2 to Ceuta. * **Goal Expectancy:** Statistical models predict over 2.5 total goals. **Summary & Betting Verdict:** This fixture has goals written all over it. While Almeria's home advantage and league position might tempt some towards a home win, their current form and defensive issues make that a risky proposition at odds of 1.70. The value, and the clear statistical trend, lies in the goal markets. With both teams consistently involved in high-scoring, end-to-end matches, the smart play is to back both teams to find the net. The odds of 1.77 for **Both Teams to Score - Yes** offer significant value against an estimated probability far higher, making it the standout bet for this encounter.