A-League
Newcastle Jets vs Perth Glory Prediction - 23rd November 2025
Sunday, November 23, 2025 at 06:00Prediction
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE NO
Odds
2.75
Implied Probability
36.4%
Expected Value
+79%
Bottom-Of-The-Table Battle: Jets Host Struggling Glory
Analysis
This matchup pits two of the A-League's struggling sides against each other, with Newcastle Jets hosting the league's worst team Perth Glory. Both sides are desperate for points, but the data suggests a clear advantage for the home team despite their own recent struggles.
Newcastle Jets come into this fixture sitting 10th in the table with just 3 points from 4 games. Their recent form has been concerning, suffering heavy defeats including a 3-0 loss to Brisbane Roar and a 4-1 thrashing at home against Sydney. However, they did show their attacking prowess in a 5-2 victory over Melbourne Victory. The Jets have been scoring freely at home (2.40 goals per game) but have also been defensively vulnerable, conceding 2.00 goals per game on their own patch.
Perth Glory's situation is even more dire. They sit rock bottom of the table with a single point from four matches. Their recent away form is particularly alarming - they've failed to score a single goal in their last three away A-League games, including a 4-0 demolition at Melbourne City and a 2-0 loss to Melbourne Victory. Overall, Perth averages just 0.67 goals scored per game away from home while conceding 1.83.
The head-to-head record presents an interesting anomaly - Newcastle has never beaten Perth at home in 9 previous meetings (0-3-0 record), though 8 of those 9 matches have seen over 2.5 goals. However, current form suggests this historical trend could be broken.
Statistically, Newcastle dominates possession (57.3% vs 45.5%) and creates more chances at home. While both teams have defensive issues, Perth's attacking impotence away from home is the standout factor that could determine this match.
Key Points:
• Perth Glory have scored 0 goals in their last 3 away A-League matches
• Newcastle Jets average 2.40 goals scored per game at home
• Perth average only 0.67 goals scored per game away from home
• Newcastle have never beaten Perth at home in 9 previous attempts (0-3-0)
• 8 out of 9 historical meetings between these sides have featured over 2.5 goals
• Both teams are in the bottom three of the A-League table
Given Perth's chronic scoring problems on the road and Newcastle's home attacking advantage, the value lies in backing against both teams finding the net. While Newcastle's defense is far from solid, Perth's attack looks completely toothless away from home, making BTTS NO the smart play at generous odds.