HNK Gorica vs HNK Hajduk Split Prediction - 31st January 2026

The HNL serves up a fascinating clash this weekend as 8th-placed HNK Gorica host title-chasing HNK Hajduk Split. On paper, this looks like a straightforward away win for the visitors, who sit 18 points clear in second place. But dig into the recent data and a more nuanced picture emerges – one where both teams finding the net looks like the smart betting play. Gorica's season has been a struggle, with just 19 points from 19 games leaving them closer to the relegation zone than European places. Their recent form shows why: in their last seven league matches, they've managed just one win (a 1-0 victory over third-placed Istra 1961), alongside three draws and three losses. However, at home they've been more resilient, boasting a 42.86% win rate from their last seven at their own ground. Crucially, they've scored in four of their last five home matches across all competitions, including against Dinamo Zagreb and Istra 1961. Their 1-2 loss to NK Varazdin last time out was disappointing, but they did find the net. Hajduk Split arrive as heavy favorites, but their recent away performances should give Gorica hope. While they've won 50% of their last four away games, they've been alarmingly porous at the back, conceding an average of 2.00 goals per game on their travels. That 5-0 thrashing at HNK Rijeka in November was a particular low point, but even in victories like their 3-1 win at NK Lokomotiva Zagreb, they've been breached. Their attack remains potent – scoring 1.50 goals per away game – but this 'score more than you concede' approach makes Both Teams to Score a compelling prospect. The head-to-head history strongly supports goals. In the last nine meetings, both teams have scored in five (55.6%), and six matches have seen Over 2.5 goals. The most recent encounter in October 2025 finished 3-1 to Hajduk, continuing this trend. Gorica's home record against Hajduk isn't terrible either (one win, one draw, two losses), suggesting they can compete. Statistically, the case for BTTS strengthens. Gorica averages 1.00 goal per home game while Hajduk concedes 2.00 per away game. Hajduk scores 1.50 away while Gorica concedes 0.86 at home – but that defensive record is skewed by friendly clean sheets. In competitive HNL home games, Gorica has conceded to Dinamo Zagreb, Varazdin, and Istra this season. With Hajduk's superior possession (54.0% away average) and shot volume (10.67 away), they should create chances, but their defensive vulnerability suggests Gorica will get opportunities too. **Key Points:** - Hajduk Split concedes 2.00 goals per game in away matches - Gorica scores 1.00 goal per home game - Both teams have scored in 5 of the last 9 head-to-head meetings (55.6%) - Hajduk's recent away form: conceded in 3 of last 4 competitive away games - Gorica has scored in 4 of their last 5 home matches - Market odds of 1.99 for BTTS Yes offer value against the statistical probability **Summary:** While Hajduk Split should dominate possession and likely control this match, their defensive frailties on the road are too significant to ignore. Gorica has shown they can score at home against quality opposition. The data points clearly toward both teams finding the net, making **Both Teams to Score - Yes** at 1.99 the value bet in this fixture.