Brisbane Roar vs Perth Glory Prediction — Elo & form

Brisbane Roar host Perth Glory on 23 October in the A-League, and the most compelling angle in this fixture is the goal-scoring pattern that has defined their recent meetings. In the last three encounters between these two sides, both teams have found the net every time: Perth Glory won 2–1 at their own ground in April, the pair shared a 1–1 draw at Brisbane Roar's ground in February, and Brisbane Roar took a 2–1 win at Perth in January. Three out of three, both teams scored.

That pattern is reinforced by what each side has been doing in their last five matches. Brisbane Roar have seen both teams score in four of their last five games, and every single one of those five has finished with three or more goals. Their most recent outing was a 4–3 away win over Olympic, a game that showed they are scoring freely but also leaving themselves exposed. Perth Glory, meanwhile, have had both teams score in three of their last five, and three of those five went over 2.5 goals.

The home-and-away records tell a similar story. Over 20 home games, Brisbane Roar have seen both teams score in 10 of 20, and over 20 away games, Perth Glory have had both teams score in 9 of 20. Neither record is extreme, but the combination of the 3-for-3 head-to-head and the recent scoring patterns makes a strong case that this will be another open game where both sides find the scoresheet.

The counter-argument is that Perth Glory are on a two-game losing run, having dropped 1–2 at Macarthur six days before kickoff and 1–3 at home to Adelaide United two weeks ago. In those two defeats they scored just two goals and conceded five. The 1–1 draw at Brisbane Roar's ground in February also reminds us that this fixture can go tight, and Perth Glory did keep a clean sheet in their 2–0 win over Adelaide United three weeks ago, showing they can shut a team down. Brisbane Roar's own last five is a mixed 2 wins and 3 losses, and they conceded 12 goals in those games, so they are not the most secure side at home.

Still, the weight of the evidence points to goals from both ends. The head-to-head at both venues in the last 12 months has been a 3-for-3 for both-teams-to-score, and neither team's recent form suggests a defensive shutdown is on the cards. Brisbane Roar's 5-for-5 over 2.5 in their last five and Perth Glory's 3-for-5 over 2.5 in theirs both point to a game where the total will be at least three, and with both sides scoring in the vast majority of their recent matches, the most natural outcome is a scoreline where neither team leaves the pitch without a goal.

Key Points:

• Both teams scored in all three recent head-to-head meetings (2–1, 1–1, 1–2)

• Brisbane Roar have had both teams score in 4 of their last 5 games and gone over 2.5 in all 5

• Perth Glory have had both teams score in 3 of their last 5 games

• Brisbane Roar's home record (20 games) shows 10 BTTS yes; Perth Glory's away record (20 games) shows 9 BTTS yes

• Perth Glory are on a 2-game losing run but scored in both defeats

The market prices both teams to score at 1.67, implying roughly a 60% chance. My own reading of the head-to-head and recent scoring patterns puts the likelihood a touch higher, around 64%, which gives this a positive edge at the available price. I'm backing both teams to score.