Celtic vs ST Mirren Prediction - 11th April 2026

The Scottish Premiership continues with a crucial fixture between Celtic and ST Mirren at Celtic Park. Celtic sits comfortably in 3rd place with 64 points, while ST Mirren struggles in 10th with 30 points. The gap in the standings suggests a mismatch in overall strength, but recent form tells a more nuanced story. Celtic's home performance has been mixed. In their last three home games, they won only once (33.33% win rate) and conceded an average of 2.33 goals per game. Their overall recent form shows 5 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses in the last 10 matches, averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded. The defensive vulnerability at home is a key factor here, as they have kept just 2 clean sheets in the last 10 games (20% clean sheet rate). ST Mirren arrives in 10th place, having won only 7 of their 32 league games. Their away form is particularly concerning, with a 16.67% win rate in their last 6 away games. However, they have been scoring consistently, averaging 1.33 goals per game on the road, though they concede 1.83 goals per game away from home. Their clean sheet rate away is just 10%, meaning they rarely keep the opposition off the score sheet. Head-to-head history heavily favors Celtic, who have won 8 of the last 10 meetings. However, the most recent encounter ended 1-3 to ST Mirren, highlighting that the visitors can punch above their weight. The goal expectancy models suggest a high-scoring affair, with an expected total of 3.58 goals (Celtic 1.75, Mirren 1.83). Given the defensive frailties on both sides—Celtic conceding 2.33 at home and Mirren conceding 1.83 away—the probability of both teams finding the net is high. The odds for Both Teams to Score - Yes are 1.75, implying a 57.1% chance. Based on the clean sheet statistics (Celtic 20%, Mirren 10%), the true probability is estimated closer to 70%, offering a significant value edge. Key Points: - Celtic are 3rd in the table (64 pts) vs ST Mirren 10th (30 pts). - Celtic home clean sheet rate is only 20% in the last 10 games. - ST Mirren away clean sheet rate is only 10% in the last 10 games. - Goal expectancy suggests 3.58 total goals. - Head-to-head shows Celtic dominance, but recent H2H was a 1-3 loss for Celtic. In summary, the defensive weaknesses of both teams point towards goals at both ends. The value lies in the BTTS market rather than the match winner due to the low odds on a Celtic win. We recommend backing Both Teams to Score - Yes. **Recommended Bet: Both Teams to Score - Yes**