Real Madrid vs Alaves Prediction - 21st April 2026

La Liga action continues on April 21, 2026, as Real Madrid host Alaves. This fixture presents a clear mismatch in league standing, with Madrid sitting 2nd with 70 points and Alaves struggling in 17th place with 33 points. However, recent form suggests a high-scoring affair rather than a comfortable home win. Real Madrid's home attack has been consistent, averaging 2.00 goals per game at the Bernabeu. Their defensive record is less stable, conceding 1.17 goals per game at home. Alaves, conversely, has a leaky defense on the road, surrendering 2.40 goals per game in their last 5 away fixtures. This defensive vulnerability combined with Madrid's offensive output strongly points to a high goal count. The most compelling signal lies in the "Both Teams to Score" market. In their last 10 games, Real Madrid saw both teams score in 80% of matches. Alaves mirrors this exact statistic, also recording an 80% BTTS rate in their last 10 games. When you combine these trends with the historical head-to-head record, where 5 out of the last 10 meetings saw both teams find the net, the pattern is undeniable. Odds for the home win are too low at 1.22 to offer value, and Over 2.5 Goals sits at 1.50, which falls below the 1.60 threshold for profitable long-term betting. However, the BTTS Yes market is priced at 1.91. Given the 80% historical rate for both sides and the goal expectancy data (Madrid home goals 2.00 + Alaves away conceded 2.40 = 4.40 expected goals), the implied probability of 52.4% is significantly lower than the statistical reality. The data supports a confident selection on goals from both sides. With Madrid needing to maintain title pressure and Alaves needing points to avoid relegation, both teams have motivation to attack. The 80% BTTS trend is the strongest signal available in the dataset. **Key Points:** - Real Madrid home goals: 2.00 per game. - Alaves away goals conceded: 2.40 per game. - Both teams have an 80% BTTS rate in their last 10 games. - Head-to-Head shows 5/10 matches saw both teams score. - Odds of 1.91 offer significant value against the 80% probability. **Summary**: The statistical evidence points to goals at both ends. The recommended bet is Both Teams to Score - Yes.