La Liga
Valencia vs Levante Prediction - 21st November 2025
Friday, November 21, 2025 at 20:00Prediction
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE YES
Odds
1.75
Implied Probability
57.1%
Expected Value
+14%
Relegation Battle: Valencia's Home Woes vs Levante's Away Strength
Analysis
This Friday night clash at Mestalla pits two relegation-threatened sides against each other in what could be a crucial six-pointer. Valencia currently sit 17th with 10 points, while Levante are just one point behind in 19th place, making this a must-win encounter for both teams.
Valencia's recent form has been deeply concerning. They've managed only 2 wins from their last 10 matches, accumulating just 0.90 points per game. Their home record is particularly alarming - only a 25% win rate at Mestalla this season, scoring just 1.00 goal per home game while conceding 1.25. Recent results include heavy defeats to Real Madrid (0-4) and Barcelona (0-6), though they did show some resilience in a 1-1 draw against Real Betis in their last outing.
Levante, despite being lower in the table, actually boast better recent form with 1.20 points per game. Crucially, their away form has been impressive - a 50% win rate on the road, averaging 2.17 goals scored per away match. They've shown they can compete with anyone away from home, highlighted by a stunning 4-0 victory at Girona. Their attacking output (1.70 goals per game overall) significantly outstrips Valencia's 1.20.
The statistical comparison favors Levante in key areas. They average more shots (12.10 vs 10.67) and shots on target (4.30 vs 3.22) per game. Both teams share similar defensive vulnerabilities, each conceding 1.90 goals per game, but Levante's superior attacking output gives them the edge.
Head-to-head records historically favor Valencia (3-4-1), but recent encounters have been tight affairs with draws dominating. However, current form and venue performance suggest this pattern might not continue.
Key Points:
⢠Valencia have the worst home record in the bottom half (25% win rate)
⢠Levante boast an excellent 50% away win rate this season
⢠Both teams concede 1.90 goals per game - defensive issues on both sides
⢠Levante score 1.70 goals per game vs Valencia's 1.20
⢠Valencia's recent heavy defeats (0-4 vs Real Madrid, 0-6 vs Barcelona) show defensive frailty
Given both teams' defensive struggles and Levante's potent away attack, I'm backing Both Teams to Score. Valencia's home defense has been leaky, and Levante have shown they can score freely on the road. At 1.75, this offers solid value in what should be an open, desperate relegation battle.