Cesena vs Empoli Prediction — Elo & form

Cesena host Empoli on 27 October in a Serie B fixture where the numbers point firmly toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Both sides have been struggling to find goals in recent weeks, and the venue-specific records reinforce that expectation.

Cesena's home record over 20 games from 28 November 2025 to 18 October 2026 shows 6 wins, 8 draws and 6 losses, with 1.55 goals scored per game and 1.45 conceded. Empoli's away record over 20 games from 22 November 2025 to 17 October 2026 is weaker: 4 wins, 6 draws and 10 losses, with 1.05 goals scored per game and 1.5 conceded. The gap in points per game (1.3 to 0.9) and the difference in goals scored (1.55 to 1.05) give Cesena a clear edge at this ground. Empoli have failed to score in 5 of their 20 away games, compared with 3 for Cesena at home.

The recent form of both teams tells a story of scoring droughts. Cesena have scored just 4 goals in their last 5 matches (0.8 per game) and kept under 2.5 in 3 of those 5. Empoli have also scored 4 in their last 5 (0.8 per game) and kept under 2.5 in 3 of 5. Looking wider, Cesena's last 10 games produced under 2.5 in 6 of 10, while Empoli's last 10 produced under 2.5 in 7 of 10. The head-to-head adds further weight: 4 of the 7 meetings between these sides have finished under 2.5 goals, and the only recent meeting at Cesena's ground (0–1 in January 2026) was a low-scoring affair.

The counter-argument is that both teams have been involved in chaotic matches. Cesena received red cards in 2 of their last 5 games (Modena, minute 5; Avellino, minute 45), and Empoli had a red card in 2 of their last 5 (Vicenza Virtus, minute 55; Arezzo, minute 45). Dismissals can open up games and produce late goals. Empoli's xG against in their last 5 matches with data was 1.94 per game, suggesting they are conceding a volume of chances that could translate into goals. The head-to-head at this venue in January 2026 also went to Empoli, and the older meetings (2017, 2018) saw Empoli score freely, though those are historical and do not reflect current form.

Key Points:

• Both teams have kept under 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 matches each

• Empoli's away record shows 11 of 20 games finished under 2.5 goals

• The head-to-head has produced under 2.5 in 4 of 7 meetings, including the only recent game at this venue

• Both sides have scored just 0.8 goals per game in their last five matches

• Empoli's away record carries 10 losses in 20 games, the worst record in this matchup comparison

With the evidence pointing consistently to a low-scoring result and the price of 1.95 offering reasonable value against the market's 51.28% implied probability, my pick is under 2.5 goals.