Chaves vs Vizela Prediction — Elo & form

Chaves welcome Vizela to their ground on 23 October for a Segunda Liga clash that, on the numbers, tilts towards a low-scoring affair. The most telling statistic in this fixture is Vizela's scoring drought: they failed to score in 5 of their last 10 matches across all venues, and in 9 of their last 20 away games. Their last two outings — a 0–1 defeat at Atlético CP on 17 October and a 0–2 loss to Sporting CP B at home on 10 October — saw them go blank in both, conceding 3 goals without replying.

Chaves, by contrast, have kept their scoring alive. In their last 5 matches they scored in 4 of 5 games (7 goals total), and at home over 20 games they have failed to score in only 5 of 20. Their home record of 9 wins, 3 draws and 8 losses in 20 games, with 1.4 goals per game, gives them a reasonable platform to find the net. The matchup table confirms the split: Chaves average 1.4 goals at home while Vizela average just 0.9 on the road.

The head-to-head is thin on recent evidence. The only meeting within the last 12 months was at Vizela's ground in February 2026, a 3–2 home win for Vizela. The older meetings at Chaves's ground (1–0 and 1–2) and at Vizela's ground (0–1 and 0–1) were mostly low-scoring affairs, and the full 11-meeting aggregate shows 6 of 11 finished under 2.5 goals. That pattern of tight results is consistent with what the current form suggests.

The counter-argument is that Chaves' defensive record has been shaky. In their last 10 matches they conceded 1.9 goals per game and kept just 1 clean sheet, which means Vizela's 0.8 goals per game in the same period could find an opening. Chaves also lost 0–4 to Farense on 4 October, a result that underlined their vulnerability. And Vizela did score in 11 of their 20 away games, so a blank is not a certainty.

Key Points:

• Vizela failed to score in 5 of their last 10 matches and 9 of their last 20 away games; they went blank in both of their most recent fixtures.

• Chaves scored in 4 of their last 5 matches and have failed to score in only 5 of 20 home games.

• The older head-to-head meetings at both venues were mostly low-scoring, while the only recent meeting in February 2026 was a 3–2 affair.

• Vizela's BTTS-yes rate is 1 in 10 over their last 10 games and 6 in 20 away, making a Vizela goal the least likely outcome.

• Chaves' 1.9 goals conceded per game in their last 10 is the main risk to a low-scoring result.

My pick: both teams not to score.