Clermont Foot vs Guingamp Prediction — Elo & form

Clermont Foot host Guingamp on 23 October in Ligue 2, and the head-to-head record tells a clear story. In the last 12 months, Clermont have won both meetings against Guingamp — a 1–0 at home on 9 May 2026 and a 1–0 away at Guingamp's ground on 24 October 2025. The pattern of low-scoring victories suggests a team that can control this fixture, and the venue-specific records back that up.

Clermont's home record over 20 games (5W 9D 6L, 1.2 points per game) sits comfortably ahead of Guingamp's away record (4W 6D 10L, 0.9 points per game). At home, Clermont concede 0.9 goals per game and have kept 6 clean sheets in 20 matches, while Guingamp on the road concede 1.45 per game and have managed just 4 clean sheets in 20. The defensive gap at this venue is the most telling number in the matchup. Guingamp's away record of 10 losses in 20 games is the weakest figure on the table, and it is the record that will matter most on the day.

The counter-argument is real, though. Clermont have not won in their last 10 matches across all venues — 0W 7D 3L — and their last five games produced 0W 3D 2L. The 0–0 draw at home against Boulogne on 11 September and the 2–3 home defeat to RED Star FC 93 on 10 October show a side that can struggle to find the breakthrough. Guingamp, meanwhile, have won two of their last five (2–1 vs Le Mans and 2–1 vs Annecy, both at home), though they have lost their last two, conceding 3 goals in those games and scoring just 1. Their current run of two defeats is a concern, but the two home wins show they can still produce results.

The market prices Guingamp as the favourite at 2.39 (41.84% implied), which reflects the weight of Clermont's winless run. But the venue-specific records and the head-to-head both point the other way. Clermont's home defence — 0.9 conceded per game — is the strongest single metric in this fixture, and the fact that both recent meetings ended 1–0 in Clermont's favour suggests a tight, controlled game. At 3.05, the home win carries a price that the football evidence supports, even if the recent form makes it a riskier call than the numbers alone would suggest.

Key Points:

• Clermont won both recent head-to-head meetings, both 1–0

• Clermont home: 5W 9D 6L, 0.9 conceded/game; Guingamp away: 4W 6D 10L, 1.45 conceded/game

• Clermont have not won in 10 matches across all venues

• Guingamp lost their last two games, conceding 3 goals and scoring 1

• Both teams scored in 4 of their last 5 matches

I back the Clermont Foot home win.