Como vs Venezia Prediction — Elo & form

Como have arrived at this fixture riding a four-game winning run, scoring 12 goals and conceding just 3 across those matches. The most recent of those came on 27 October, a 3–1 away win at Torino, and before that they beat Sassuolo 2–0 at home and Manchester United 4–1 in the Champions League. The only blemish in the last five was a 2–3 defeat at Feyenoord on 14 October, but even in that loss Como outscored their opponents on expected goals (1.34 to 0.67).

At home over 20 games, Como's record is 12 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses, averaging 2.05 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game. Ten of those 20 home matches ended in a clean sheet. Their xG figures over the last 8 games with data tell the same story: 2.01 expected goals for and 1.19 against. The numbers say this is a side that scores consistently and keeps things tight at the back.

Venezia, by contrast, are in a genuine slump. They have lost nine of their last ten matches, scoring just 7 and conceding 21. Their last two games have been scoreless defeats — 0–2 to Inter at home on 28 October and 0–1 at Genoa on 25 October. Over 20 away games their record is 7 wins, 7 draws and 6 losses, but the recent away results paint a much darker picture. They have failed to score in three of their last five matches, and their xG against stands at 2.05 per game over the last 9 games with data, while their xG for is just 1.6. The creative output is there, but the results are not following.

The head-to-head here is entirely historical. The five most recent meetings between these two sides all date back at least 20 months, spanning from 2023 to 2025, and include two draws, one Como win and two Venezia wins. With no meetings within the last 12 months, the H2H offers no real insight into how this fixture will play out, so current form and venue records carry the weight.

The counter-argument is that Venezia's 20-game away record does include 7 wins and 7 draws, and they did beat Napoli 1–0 at home on 17 October. Football is unpredictable, and a team that has won 7 of 20 away games is not one to dismiss entirely. However, the last 10 games tell a very different story, and the xG data suggests Venezia are creating chances but not converting them while leaking goals at a rate of 2.05 per game.

Key Points:

• Como won their last 4 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 3

• Como's home record: 12W 5D 3L over 20 games, 10 clean sheets

• Venezia lost 9 of their last 10, scoring only 7 goals

• Venezia failed to score in 3 of their last 5 matches

• Head-to-head is entirely historical with no meetings in the last 12 months

The contrast in recent results is stark and the home record supports it. I'm backing the Como win at 1.34.