Cuiaba vs Avai Prediction - 11th October 2026

Cuiaba host Avai on 11 October in Serie B, and the venue records tell a compelling story about how this fixture should play out. Cuiaba's home record over 20 games is 8 wins, 8 draws and 4 losses, generating 1.6 points per game, while Avai's away record over the same span is 4 wins, 3 draws and 13 losses, managing just 0.75 points per game. That gap in results is the single most telling statistic in this fixture. Cuiaba's defensive record at home is particularly strong. They have kept 10 clean sheets in 20 home games and concede just 0.7 goals per game. Their last two home matches were emphatic clean sheet victories: 2–0 against Ponte Preta on 3 October and 3–0 against Nautico Recife on 22 September. By contrast, Avai have kept only 2 clean sheets in 20 away games and concede 1.75 goals per game on the road. Their last five matches across all venues show just one win, one draw and three losses, with 8 goals conceded in that span and not a single clean sheet. The head-to-head is limited in recent meetings. The only encounter within the last 12 months was at Avai's ground in June 2026, which Avai won 1–0. At Cuiaba's ground, there have been no meetings in the last year, though the older historical record at this venue includes a 2–2 draw and a 1–0 Cuiaba win. With the head-to-head so thin in current form, the venue records and recent results carry far more weight here. The counter-argument is that Cuiaba's most recent game was a 0–0 draw at Vila Nova on 7 October, and their home record includes 8 draws out of 20 games, meaning they are not always the dominant force at home. Avai did pick up a 2–1 win over Londrina on 7 October, and their xG data from in August showed them creating 1.3 expected goals per game, which is higher than Cuiaba's 0.59. However, that xG sample covers only two or three games, and Avai's actual results since then have been poor, with three losses in their last five matches. Cuiaba's overall form across their last 10 games is 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses at 1.8 points per game, compared to Avai's 3 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses at 1.0 points per game. Key Points: - Cuiaba's home record: 8W 8D 4L in 20 games, 1.6 ppg, 10/20 clean sheets - Avai's away record: 4W 3D 13L in 20 games, 0.75 ppg, 2/20 clean sheets - Cuiaba's last two home games were clean sheet wins (2–0, 3–0) - Avai's last five: 1W 1D 3L, 8 goals conceded, 0 clean sheets - Only one recent H2H meeting (June 2026, at Avai's ground) The evidence points clearly to Cuiaba. The home win is the pick.