Aberdeen vs Livingston Prediction - 24th January 2026

The Premiership's bottom side Livingston travel to Pittodrie to face an Aberdeen team desperate to climb from mid-table obscurity. On paper, this looks like a classic relegation battler versus mid-table side, but the recent form books tell a more nuanced story that demands careful analysis for betting value. Aberdeen's season has been a rollercoaster, currently sitting 8th with 25 points from 22 games. Their recent league form makes for grim reading: five consecutive defeats including losses to Rangers (0-2 and 2-0), Falkirk (1-0), Hibernian (2-0), and Celtic (3-1). However, a crucial 1-0 FA Cup victory over Raith Rovers just three days ago provided a much-needed confidence boost. At home, the Dons have been marginally better, scoring 0.8 goals per game while conceding just 1.0. Their 2-1 victory over Kilmarnock and 1-1 draw with Dundee United at Pittodrie show they can grind out results against lower-half opposition. Livingston's plight is more severe. Rooted to the bottom with just 11 points, they haven't won a match since their last meeting with Aberdeen on November 30th – a 1-0 defeat. Their last ten games read: 0 wins, 4 draws, 6 losses. Most alarmingly for their traveling fans, Livingston have failed to score in their last three away matches, losing 1-0 at Hearts, 1-0 at St Mirren, and 3-0 at Motherwell. Their away attacking statistics are dire: 0.0 goals scored per game on the road from just 1.33 shots on target per match with 16.1% shot accuracy. The head-to-head record heavily favors Aberdeen, with the Dons winning five of the nine meetings, drawing three, and losing just once. More significantly, Aberdeen are unbeaten at home against Livingston with four wins and one draw from five encounters. The most recent meeting on November 30th ended 1-0 to Aberdeen, continuing a pattern where Livingston struggle to breach Aberdeen's defense. Statistically, this matchup points toward a low-scoring affair. Aberdeen's home games average just 1.8 total goals (0.8 for, 1.0 against), while Livingston's away games average 1.67 total goals (0.0 for, 1.67 against). Livingston's complete inability to score away from home – combined with Aberdeen's reasonable home defensive record – suggests Both Teams to Score might be a risky proposition. Looking at the betting markets, the 1.75 odds for a home win reflect Aberdeen's superiority but don't fully account for their recent league struggles. The 1.91 for Under 2.5 Goals seems fairly priced given the goal expectancy of around 2.13. However, the 1.95 for Both Teams to Score No presents genuine value when we examine the underlying data. **Key Points:** * Livingston have failed to score in their last three away matches * Aberdeen have kept clean sheets in 6 of 9 historical meetings against Livingston * Livingston average 0.0 goals per game in away matches * Aberdeen concede just 1.0 goals per game at home * Livingston have a 0% clean sheet rate in their last ten matches * Aberdeen's last five matches have seen Both Teams Score in only two instances * The last H2H meeting ended 1-0 to Aberdeen **Summary:** While Aberdeen should be favorites to win this match given their historical dominance and Livingston's dreadful away form, the value lies in the Both Teams to Score market. Livingston's away goal drought is statistically significant, and Aberdeen's defense at home has been reasonably solid. At odds of 1.95, Both Teams to Score No offers positive expected value as our analysis suggests this outcome has approximately a 58% probability of occurring, compared to the implied probability of just 51.3% from the bookmakers' odds.