Cadiz vs Real Sociedad II Prediction - 23rd February 2026

Cadiz welcome Real Sociedad II to the Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla on Monday evening with both sides looking to climb the Segunda División table, though their recent trajectories could hardly be more different. While the hosts have been stuttering through a worrying slump, the visitors arrive with momentum firmly on their side, making the 3.60 available on an away win look increasingly tempting. The Andalusians sit 11th with 35 points from 26 games, but their recent form makes for grim reading. Just three wins in their last ten outings highlights a side struggling for consistency. Their last five results read like a team in freefall: a 1-1 draw at Burgos preceded by four consecutive defeats to Almeria (1-2), Huesca (0-1), Granada (1-2), and Albacete (0-1). Even at home, Cadiz have lost three of their last five, shipping goals against mid-table opposition despite impressive wins over promotion-chasing Castellón (2-0) and Sporting Gijón (3-2). The numbers paint a picture of defensive fragility—conceding 1.80 goals per game at home—and a declining attacking output, with their goals scored trend sloping downwards and a points trend showing clear decline. Real Sociedad II, meanwhile, occupy 16th place with 31 points, yet their recent resurgence suggests a side finding their feet at the right time. Unbeaten in four of their last five league matches, including a statement 2-1 victory over high-flying Málaga (who average 2.30 points per game) and a hard-fought draw against Las Palmas, the Basque outfit are trending in the right direction. Their away form is particularly eye-catching, boasting a 50% win rate over their last six road trips and averaging 1.33 goals per game while conceding just 1.17. The mathematical models back up this improvement, with their points, goals scored, and goals conceded all showing positive trajectories against a declining Cadiz side. The reverse fixture back in September ended in a chaotic 3-3 draw, and with both sides registering a 70% both-teams-to-score rate in their last ten games, another open contest seems possible. Cadiz average 1.80 goals at home but concede the same amount, while Real Sociedad II's away games have been similarly eventful with a 2.50 total goals average. However, the betting value lies in the match outcome rather than the goals markets. Cadiz's home advantage is negated by their alarming recent form—four losses in five against sides averaging just 1.20 points per game suggests systemic issues rather than bad luck. Real Sociedad II, conversely, have proven they can compete with the division's best, as evidenced by their win against Málaga. With the hosts showing a declining points trend (slope -0.2000) and the visitors improving across all metrics (points slope +0.2909), the 3.60 on an away win represents significant value in a fixture where the form book strongly favours the team from San Sebastián. **Key Points:** - Cadiz have won just three of their last ten matches, losing four of their last five home games against mixed opposition - Real Sociedad II are unbeaten in four of their last five league games and have won 50% of their last six away matches - The reverse fixture finished 3-3, with both teams scoring in 70% of their respective last ten games - Goal expectancies suggest a tight contest (Home 1.48, Away 1.57) favouring the visitors slightly - Cadiz show declining trends in points and goals scored, while Real Sociedad II show improvement across all key metrics with higher trend confidence **Summary:** Real Sociedad II's resurgence and strong away form make them excellent value at 3.60 against a Cadiz side struggling for consistency and showing declining performance metrics. The away win offers the best combination of probability and price for value hunters.