ST Mirren vs Dundee Prediction - 31st January 2026

The Scottish Premiership presents a fascinating clash at the wrong end of the table as 10th-placed ST Mirren host 9th-placed Dundee. With just three points separating the sides, this is a genuine six-pointer in the battle to avoid the drop. The data paints a picture of two teams struggling for consistency but capable of finding the net, setting the stage for an intriguing encounter. ST Mirren's recent form is a tale of two venues. Their overall record of just two wins in their last ten matches looks grim, but a deeper dive reveals a more resilient side at home. In their last four home games, they've secured a 50% win rate, including that stunning 3-1 League Cup victory over Celtic and a 1-0 league win against Livingston. However, they were also beaten 0-2 by Falkirk, highlighting their vulnerability. Their recent results have been defined by draws, with three consecutive stalemates against Dundee Utd (0-0) and Livingston twice (1-1). The concern for the hosts is a lack of goals, averaging just 0.70 per game over their last ten, though this improves to 1.00 per game on home soil. Dundee arrive with marginally better recent results, boasting four wins from their last ten. Their successes, however, have come almost exclusively against teams in the lower reaches. They've recorded victories over Kilmarnock (2-1 in the FA Cup and 2-1 in the league), Dundee Utd (1-0), and Falkirk (1-0). When facing the division's stronger sides like Rangers (0-3 loss), Hearts (0-1 loss), and Motherwell (0-1 loss), they've come up short. Their away form shows they can be a threat on the road, winning a third of their last six away trips, but they concede an average of 1.33 goals per game in those matches. The head-to-head history adds another layer of intrigue. These meetings are historically tight, with both teams winning four of the nine recorded encounters. The standout trend is ST Mirren's formidable home record against Dundee, where they have won three and lost just one of their four home fixtures—a commanding 75% win rate. The most recent meeting, a 1-3 Dundee victory in November, will give the visitors hope, but the venue for that match is unspecified in the data. Statistically, ST Mirren should dominate possession and chances. They average 14.67 shots per game at home, with 6.00 on target, while Dundee manage only 7.00 shots and 2.40 on target on their travels. This suggests the home side will create opportunities. The key question is whether they can convert them and, crucially, keep Dundee out at the other end. **Key Points:** * **Home Fortress:** ST Mirren have a strong 75% home win rate against Dundee historically. * **Goal Trends:** Both teams have scored in 56% of past head-to-head meetings (5 of 9 games). * **Form Split:** ST Mirren are tougher at home (50% win rate last 4), while Dundee's wins have come against struggling sides. * **Shot Disparity:** ST Mirren average over double Dundee's away shots when playing at home (14.67 vs 7.00). * **Defensive Gaps:** Dundee concede 1.33 goals per away game; ST Mirren concede 0.75 at home but have kept only 3 clean sheets in 10 overall. **Summary & Betting Verdict:** This is a pivotal match with both teams desperate for points. ST Mirren's home advantage and superior shot creation point towards them having the better of the play. However, Dundee have shown they can score on the road, netting in four of their last five away fixtures, including against Aberdeen and Livingston. With ST Mirren's clean sheet rate at just 30% overall, and both teams scoring in 40% of each side's recent games, the conditions are ripe for goals at both ends. The market odds of 1.95 for Both Teams to Score - Yes offer genuine value against a probability we assess as closer to 55%, making it the standout betting angle for this clash.