Granada CF vs Valladolid Prediction — Elo & form

Granada CF enter this Segunda División fixture at their ground in strong form, having won their last three matches while scoring six goals and conceding just two. The 2–0 victory over Cadiz on 18 October was the latest in a run that also includes a 1–0 away win at Burgos and a 3–2 win at Real Sociedad II. At home over 20 games, Granada have recorded 8 wins, 6 draws and 6 losses, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game, with 8 clean sheets in that span. Their xG against in the last three matches with data totals 3.17, while they actually conceded just 2 goals, suggesting the defensive record is solid.

The head-to-head at this venue in recent meetings tells a clear story. On 14 February 2026, Granada dismantled Valladolid 5–1, with a Valladolid red card in the 33rd minute. The reverse fixture at Valladolid's ground in November 2025 ended 2–1 to the hosts, but the pattern at Granada's ground in the last 12 months is one-sided. Older meetings from 2020 and 2021 are historical record only and do not reflect current form.

Valladolid's away record is the key concern. Over 20 away games, they have managed just 3 wins, 5 draws and 12 losses, averaging 0.7 points per game. They concede 1.85 goals per game on the road and have kept only 2 clean sheets in 20 away appearances. Their most recent outing was a 2–3 home defeat to Eldense on 18 October, compounded by a red card in the 72nd minute. The current run shows a loss in that single most recent game.

The counter-argument centres on Valladolid's recent scoring output. In their last five matches they have scored 13 goals at 2.6 per game, and four of those five games went over 2.5. Their 5–0 demolition of Albacete on 12 October showed they can be dangerous when in form. Granada's own last two defeats before the current run (2–3 at FC Andorra and 2–3 at Leganes) suggest a dip that has now been corrected. However, those two losses are behind them, and the last three results have been wins.

Key Points:

• Granada CF won their last 3 matches, scoring 6 and conceding 2

• Granada's home record: 8W 6D 6L in 20 games, 1.05 conceded per game, 8 clean sheets

• Valladolid's away record: 3W 5D 12L in 20 games, 1.85 conceded per game, 2 clean sheets

• Recent H2H at Granada's ground: 5–1 Granada win (14 February 2026)

• Valladolid lost their last game (2–3 to Eldense) with a red card in the 72nd minute

With Granada's recent form, dominant home record and the recent head-to-head at this venue all pointing the same way, while Valladolid's away numbers are poor, I rate Granada's chance of winning at around 55%, which sits comfortably above the market's 44.25% implied by the 2.26 price. The home win is the pick.