Hammarby FF vs Sirius Prediction — Elo & form

Hammarby FF arrive at this Allsvenskan fixture in commanding form, and the numbers make a strong case for the hosts. The home side have won four of their last five matches, keeping clean sheets in four of those five, and their current run sees them winning their last two games with three goals scored and none conceded. At home, the picture is even more striking: across 20 home games, Hammarby FF have recorded 13 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses, scoring 2.55 goals per game while conceding just 0.7. That defensive solidity — 10 clean sheets in 20 home games — is the backbone of their case, and their xG against over the last three matches with data sits at 0.83 per game, with only 1 actual goal conceded in that span.

Sirius, by contrast, arrive with a mixed bag. Their last five matches produced 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss, and their most recent outing was a 1–2 defeat to AIK Stockholm at home on 24 October. Across their last 10 games, they have managed 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses, scoring 1.2 per game and conceding 1.0. Their away record over 20 games shows 13 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses, but that stretch spans 13 months and the older results dilute what it says about their current away threat. More telling is that Sirius have kept just one clean sheet in their last five and have conceded 6 goals in that span, with both teams scoring in 4 of those 5.

The head-to-head at this venue is limited. The two recent meetings within the last 12 months produced a 2–2 draw at Hammarby FF's ground in March and a 2–0 win for Sirius at their own ground in April. The older meetings — a 3–1 Sirius win in August 2025 and a 3–2 Hammarby win in May 2025 — are historical and do not carry much weight for current form. The full head-to-head aggregate across 25 meetings shows Hammarby FF winning 15, drawing 7 and losing 3, but those older games dilute the picture.

The counter-argument for Sirius rests on their ability to score. In their last five games, both teams have scored in four of the five, and their xG figures show 1.71 per game in attack over the last three matches with data. Sirius have also failed to score in only 2 of their last 10 games. However, Hammarby's defensive record at home — 0.7 goals conceded per game — and their clean-sheet rate of 10 in 20 home games suggest the hosts' back line is well organised enough to contain that output. In their last 10 games, Hammarby have kept 6 clean sheets compared to Sirius's 4, and Hammarby's BTTS-no record of 7 in 10 contrasts with Sirius's 6 BTTS-yes in 10.

Key Points:

• Hammarby FF have won 4 of their last 5, keeping 4 clean sheets, and are on a 2-game winning run with 3 goals scored and 0 conceded

• Hammarby's home record: 13W 4D 3L in 20 games, 0.7 conceded per game, 10 clean sheets

• Sirius lost their last game (1–2 to AIK) and have mixed form: 2W 2D 1L in 5, conceding 6 in that span

• H2H at this venue: 2–2 draw in March 2026; only 2 recent meetings within 12 months

• Hammarby BTTS no in 5/5 last 5; Sirius BTTS yes in 4/5 last 5

The evidence points to a Hammarby FF home win.