Preview
LiveScoresXMirassol welcome Internacional to their ground on 16 October in a Serie A fixture where the venue records tell a compelling story. The hosts have won 9 of their last 20 home games, averaging 1.65 points per game and scoring 1.35 per match while conceding just 1.15. By contrast, Internacional's away record over the same 20-game span is 5 wins, 6 draws and 9 losses, with 1.05 points per game, 1.1 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. The gap in points per game alone — 1.65 to 1.05 — suggests Mirassol's home base is a genuine advantage against a side that struggles on the road.
The head-to-head reinforces this. The only meeting within the last 12 months came on 19 April at Internacional's ground, where Mirassol won 2–1 on the road. The older meeting at this venue, back in October 2025, saw Mirassol win 3–1. So the hosts have won both meetings — the one at this ground (3–1, historical) and the recent one at the reverse venue (2–1).
Mirassol's recent form is solid if not dominant. Their last five matches produced 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss, with 1.8 goals scored per game and just 0.8 conceded. The 4–0 friendly win over Uberlandia on 27 September and the 2–0 home victory over Botafogo on 19 September show the hosts can score in bunches and keep things tight. The 0–1 defeat at Bahia five days ago is the blemish, but it was on the road. At home, Mirassol have kept clean sheets in 5 of their last 20 games and failed to score in only 2.
Internacional's away form is the concern. Over 20 away games they have won just 5, lost 9, and conceded 1.5 per game. Their last two away results were a 0–1 loss at Sao Paulo on 20 September and a 1–1 draw at Gremio on 11 October. In their last five matches overall, they have conceded 7 goals and scored 7, with no clean sheets. The 2–1 home win over Corinthians on 7 October was encouraging, but the away record tells a different story.
The counter-argument is that Mirassol's form has been inconsistent — a win, a draw and a loss in their last three games, and the 0–1 Bahia defeat shows they can be vulnerable. Internacional, meanwhile, have won 2 of their last 10 matches and scored in 7 of those 10, so they are not without attacking threat. The BTTS record at both venues is high (13/20 for Mirassol home, 12/20 for Internacional away), suggesting both sides will find the net.
Key Points:
- Mirassol's home record: 9W 6D 5L in 20 games, 1.65 PPG, 1.35 scored/game, 1.15 conceded/game
- Internacional's away record: 5W 6D 9L in 20 games, 1.05 PPG, 1.1 scored/game, 1.5 conceded/game
- H2H: Mirassol won the only recent meeting (2–1 away) and the older meeting at this venue (3–1)
- Mirassol's last 5: 2W 2D 1L, 1.8 scored/game, 0.8 conceded/game
- Internacional's last 5: 2W 1D 2L, 1.4 scored/game, 1.4 conceded/game, 0 clean sheets
The evidence points to Mirassol as the clear favourite at home, and the 2.32 price on a home win offers reasonable value against the 43.10% market probability. I rate Mirassol's chance of winning at around 50%, which sits comfortably above the market's view. My pick is the home win.