Preview
LiveScoresXSouthampton arrive at Norwich's ground in markedly better shape than their hosts. The visitors have won three of their last five matches, including a 1-0 home victory over Portsmouth on 11 October and a 4-1 thrashing of Bristol City on 12 September, while Norwich have lost their last four games, conceding 15 goals in the process. The gap in recent results is stark: Southampton sit on 2 points per game over their last five, compared to Norwich's 0.6.
Southampton's away record over the last 20 games tells a strong story. They have won 12 of those 20, drawing 5 and losing just 3, averaging 2.05 points per game. Their scoring output on the road is 1.85 goals per game, and they concede just 1.0 per game. The xG numbers from their last four matches with data paint an even clearer picture: Southampton have generated 2.13 xG per game while conceding only 0.82 xG per game. By contrast, Norwich's xG figures from their last four data points show 1.18 xG for and 1.86 xG against, suggesting a team struggling to create and leaking goals in equal measure.
The head-to-head over the last 12 months is split. Southampton won 1-0 at their own ground in March 2026, and Norwich claimed a 2-1 home victory in December 2025. Older meetings, including a 0-3 Southampton win in August 2025 and a 4-4 draw in 2023, are historical and do not carry the same weight as current form.
The counter-argument for Norwich rests on their home record. Over 20 home games, they have won 11, drawn 4 and lost 5, averaging 1.85 points per game and scoring 1.75 per game while conceding 1.05. That is a solid home base, and the most recent meeting at this venue in the last 12 months ended 2-1 to Norwich. However, that result came 10 months ago, and Norwich's form since then has deteriorated sharply, with no clean sheet in their last five matches and a 3.2 goals-conceded-per-game rate across that stretch.
Key Points:
- Southampton have won 3 of their last 5; Norwich have lost their last 4, conceding 15 goals
- Southampton's away record: 12W 5D 3L in 20 games, 2.05 points per game
- Southampton xG: 2.13 for, 0.82 against; Norwich xG: 1.18 for, 1.86 against
- Norwich's home record (11W in 20) is solid but their recent form has collapsed
- H2H in the last 12 months is split 1-1, with the most recent meeting won by Southampton
With the market pricing Southampton's win at 2.85 and implying a 35.09% chance, I see a clear value gap. The form, the away record and the xG numbers all point to Southampton being the stronger side on the day, and I rate their chance of winning at roughly 48%, well above the market's view. I'm backing the away win for Southampton.