Preview
LiveScoresXQPR and Derby meet at QPR's ground on 14 October in the Championship, and the recent scoring patterns point to a tight, low-scoring affair.
QPR have been remarkably flat over their last five matches, drawing four of them and losing just once. The scores tell the story: 1–1 at West Ham, 2–2 at home to Preston, 1–1 at West Brom, 0–0 at Charlton, and 0–1 to Middlesbrough. Four of those five games finished with two or fewer goals, and QPR have scored just four goals across the stretch. Their home record over 20 games shows 6 of 20 finishing under 2.5, and their latest 10 across all venues has seen 6 of 10 under the line. QPR's xG of 1.63 per game in recent matches suggests they are creating chances but not converting them at the expected rate, which keeps the scorelines low.
Derby, meanwhile, have been even more inconsistent. Their last five games produced two draws and three losses, with scores of 1–1 at home to Wrexham, 1–1 at Burnley, 1–2 to Birmingham at home, 0–1 to West Brom at home, and 0–3 at West Ham. Three of those five finished under 2.5 goals, and Derby have scored just three goals in the stretch. Their away record over 20 games has 9 of 20 under 2.5, and their latest 10 across all venues has 4 of 10 under the line. Derby's xG against of 1.62 per game in recent matches shows their defence is being tested.
The head-to-head in the last 12 months has been a Derby affair, with the Rams winning 2–3 at QPR's ground in April 2026 and 1–0 at their own ground in October 2025. However, both of those meetings were decided by a single goal, and the older meetings at QPR's ground (4–0 and 1–0) are historical record rather than a guide to current form. The recent meetings suggest a close contest, but not an open one.
The counter-argument is that QPR's home record over 20 games has 14 of 20 finishing over 2.5, and Derby's away record has 11 of 20 over the line. QPR's xG of 1.63 per game suggests they should be scoring more than they have, and Derby's xG against of 1.62 per game shows their defence has been under pressure in recent matches. But the very recent form — QPR's 4-of-5 under 2.5 and Derby's 3-of-5 under — is the most telling evidence, and both teams are struggling to find goals in front of their own fans and on the road.
Key Points:
- QPR have drawn 4 of their last 5, with 4 of those 5 finishing under 2.5 goals
- Derby have had 3 of their last 5 games finish under 2.5, scoring just 3 goals in the stretch
- QPR's latest 10 games have seen 6 of 10 under 2.5; Derby's latest 10 have seen 4 of 10 under
- The last two head-to-head meetings were both decided by a single goal
- Both teams have failed to score in 2 of their last 5 matches
My pick is under 2.5 goals at 2.05.