Rangers vs ST Johnstone Prediction — Elo & form

Rangers arrive at this fixture in outstanding form, having won eight of their last ten matches across all competitions. Their last five games produced four wins and a draw, including a 3-0 victory over Celtic at home in the League Cup on 13 September and a 1-0 win at Celtic's ground on 20 September. At home over 20 games, Rangers have won 13, drawn 4 and lost 3, scoring 2.55 goals per game while conceding just 0.95. Their most recent home results include 3-1 over Kilmarnock on 10 October and 1-0 against ST Mirren on 9 September, with clean sheets in three of their last five matches overall.

ST Johnstone, by contrast, have been inconsistent. Their last five games yielded two wins, two draws and a loss, and across their last ten they have won just three, drawn four and lost three. Their most recent outing was a 1-1 draw at home against Dundee United on 17 October, and before that a 1-0 win at Aberdeen on 11 October. Their away record over 20 games is respectable at 12 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses, but the goals in those games tell a different story: they average 1.6 scored and 0.6 conceded per away game, and 14 of those 20 away matches finished with two or fewer goals in total.

The head-to-head between these two sides is entirely historical, with no meetings within the last 12 months. The five older encounters all ended in Rangers victories, including 3-1, 2-0 and 2-0 at Rangers's ground and 0-1 and 0-3 at ST Johnstone's ground. While that record is lopsided, it dates back at least two years and cannot be treated as a current trend. The most recent meeting was on 12 January 2025, a 3-1 Rangers win at home.

The strongest counter-argument to a low-scoring outcome is Rangers' home scoring record. Fourteen of their 20 home games have produced over 2.5 goals, and they average 2.55 per game at home. ST Johnstone's away record also includes 12 wins, which means they are capable of winning on the road. However, the recent form of both sides points toward a tighter, lower-scoring affair: Rangers have finished under 2.5 in six of their last ten games, and ST Johnstone have done so in seven of their last ten and four of their last five. ST Johnstone's away games have been under 2.5 in 14 of 20, and their last five matches have been under 2.5 in four of five.

Key Points:

• Rangers are 8W 1D 1L in their last 10 and 13W 4D 3L at home in 20 games

• ST Johnstone's away games have been under 2.5 in 14 of 20 matches

• The head-to-head is entirely historical with no meetings in the last 12 months

• Both teams' recent form leans toward low-scoring results

• ST Johnstone's away record is strong on results but low on goals

With the available prices in mind, the under 2.5 goals market at 2.75 offers the best balance of evidence and return. I rate the chance of two or fewer goals at roughly 48%, which sits comfortably above the market's 36.36% implied probability. My pick is under 2.5 goals.