ST Mirren vs Dundee Prediction — Elo & form

ST Mirren host Dundee at their ground on 24 October in the Premiership, and the form gap between the two sides is stark.

ST Mirren have lost their last five matches, scoring just two goals and conceding 14 along the way. The defeats came against Aberdeen 1–3 away, Heart of Midlothian 0–5 away, Dundee United 0–3 at home, Rangers 0–1 away and Celtic 1–2 at home. In that stretch they failed to score in three of the five games and kept a clean sheet in none. Their xG against has been running at 1.75 per game over the last six matches with data, which tells you the defensive problems are not just bad luck. Over their last 10 games across all venues, ST Mirren have managed 3 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses, conceding 2.2 per game.

Dundee, by contrast, have won two and drawn two from their last five, scoring eight and conceding seven. They beat Falkirk 2–1 on the road, beat Motherwell 2–1 at home, and drew 2–2 with Rangers at their own ground. In their last five games, both teams have scored in every single match, and four of those five went over 2.5 goals. Their away record over 20 games is 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses, with 1.1 goals scored per game and 1.4 conceded per game.

The head-to-head over the last 12 months tells a similar story. Dundee won 1–0 at their ground in May 2026 and 3–1 at their ground in November 2025. The only meeting at ST Mirren's ground in that window was a 0–0 draw in January 2026. Dundee have won two of the three recent meetings, and the only point ST Mirren collected at home came in a scoreless draw.

The counter-argument is that ST Mirren's home record over 20 games is 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses, which is not the profile of a side that cannot win at home. The 0–0 draw at this venue last time also suggests the fixture can be tight. Dundee's away record of 6W 5D 9L over 20 games is not dominant either, and they have conceded in all five of their recent matches, keeping a clean sheet in none.

Key Points:

• ST Mirren have lost all five of their last matches, scoring 2 and conceding 14

• Dundee have won 2 and drawn 2 from their last five, scoring 8 and conceding 7

• Dundee won 2 of the last 3 recent head-to-head meetings; the only meeting at ST Mirren's ground was a 0–0 draw

• ST Mirren's home record over 20 games is 8W 4D 8L, but current form is far worse

• Both teams' last five games have seen over 2.5 goals in four of five matches

The form gap is too large to ignore, and the head-to-head backs it up. I'm backing the away win for Dundee.