Start vs Sandefjord Prediction — Elo & form

Start enter this Eliteserien fixture at their ground carrying the weight of a brutal run. Their last two matches have been emphatic defeats: a 1–6 loss at Molde on 18 October and a 2–4 home defeat to Ham-Kam on 11 October. In those two games they scored three and conceded ten, and before that they were held to a 0–3 loss by Sandefjord on 20 September. The xG figures underline the defensive fragility — Start have faced 2.63 expected goals against per game across their last three matches with xG data, while their own attacking output has been 2.4 per game. Their last five matches overall show 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses, with zero clean sheets in that stretch.

Sandefjord, by contrast, arrive with a far steadier profile. Their last five matches yield 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, with 7 goals scored and 6 conceded. Their most recent outing was a 0–2 home loss to Lillestrom on 18 October, but before that they drew 1–1 at Rosenborg on 10 October and won 1–0 at Flint on 30 September. Over their last 10 matches across all venues, Sandefjord have conceded just 0.9 goals per game and kept 4 clean sheets, a defensive record that contrasts sharply with Start's 2.1 goals conceded per game and a single clean sheet in the same period.

The head-to-head adds context. The two most recent meetings, both at Sandefjord's ground within the last 12 months, ended 3–0 and 3–2 in Sandefjord's favour. There have been no recent meetings at Start's ground; the three older fixtures there (dating back to 2020) produced a Start win, a draw and a Sandefjord win. The full head-to-head across 10 meetings spanning 8 years shows Sandefjord winning 5, Start winning 1 and 4 draws, with Start scoring just 1 goal per game and conceding 2.

On the venue records over 20 games each, Start at home have 10 wins, 3 draws and 7 losses (1.65 points per game, 1.75 scored, 1.45 conceded), while Sandefjord away have 8 wins, 3 draws and 9 losses (1.35 points per game, 2.25 scored, 1.65 conceded). Start's home numbers look marginally better, but those 20 games span 14 months and include older results that dilute the current picture. Sandefjord's away record covers 11 months. The last 12 months of head-to-head and the current form of both sides tell a very different story from those extended venue splits.

The strongest counter-argument for Start is their home record and the fact that they have won 6 of their last 10 matches across all venues, including a 5–1 cup win over Raufoss and a 2–1 friendly against Brann. However, those wins are interspersed with the heavy defeats, and the xG data suggests Start's defence is leaking at a rate that makes a home win difficult to sustain against a side that has conceded under one goal per game over their last ten.

Key Points:

• Start lost their last two matches, conceding 10 goals and scoring just 3; their xG against is 2.63 per game over the last three tracked matches.

• Sandefjord have conceded 0.9 goals per game over their last 10 matches and kept 4 clean sheets in that span.

• Both recent head-to-head meetings within 12 months were won by Sandefjord (3–0 and 3–2).

• Start's home record over 20 games (10W 3D 7L) looks solid but spans 14 months; current form is far weaker.

• Sandefjord's away record over 20 games (8W 3D 9L) is competitive, and their defensive numbers in the last 10 are the best in this fixture.

With Start's defence under serious pressure and Sandefjord arriving with the better recent defensive record and a head-to-head edge in recent meetings, I rate Sandefjord's chance of winning at around 38%, which sits above the market's 31.95% implied by the 3.13 price. My pick is the away win.