Preview
LiveScoresXTrabzonspor host Beşiktaş on 19 October in the Süper Lig, and the numbers at this ground tell a story the market seems to be underweighting.
Trabzonspor's home record over the last 20 home games is the most telling figure in this fixture: 11 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses, averaging 1.8 points per game with 1.7 goals scored and just 1.0 conceded per match. Beşiktaş's away record over the same 20-game span is noticeably weaker: 8 wins, 5 draws and 7 losses, 1.45 points per game, 1.35 scored and 1.2 conceded. The gap in both win percentage and points per game is clear, and it favours the hosts.
The recent head-to-head reinforces the point. In the two meetings within the last 12 months, Trabzonspor have not lost: a 3–3 draw at their ground in December 2025 and a 2–1 away win at Beşiktaş in May 2026. The older meetings at this ground are historical and do not carry the same weight.
Trabzonspor arrive in good form, having won their last two matches — a 4–2 away win at KuPS in the Europa Conference League and a 3–0 away win at Samsunspor — scoring 7 and conceding 2 in those games. Their last five matches show 3 wins and 2 losses, with 11 goals scored and 4 conceded. The 4–0 home demolition of Galatasaray on 19 September remains a highlight, though the 0–1 friendly loss to Drogheda United on 1 October is a minor blemish.
Beşiktaş, however, are in arguably better recent shape. Their last five matches contain 4 wins and 1 loss, with 14 goals scored and 7 conceded. The 3–2 away win at Hoffenheim in the Europa League on 15 October and the 4–1 home win over Marseille on 17 September show a side scoring freely. Over their last 10 games, Beşiktaş have won 7, drawn 0 and lost 3, averaging 2.5 goals per game. Their xG figures back this up: 2.26 per game created and just 0.94 per game conceded across six recent matches with data.
The counter-argument is straightforward: Beşiktaş's recent form is superior, and their defensive xG (0.94 per game) is well below Trabzonspor's (1.48 per game). The market prices Beşiktaş as the favourite at 2.3, implying a 43.48% chance, while Trabzonspor sit at 2.96 with a 33.78% implied probability.
But the home/away split is the single most relevant comparison for this fixture, and it points firmly to Trabzonspor. A 55% home win rate against a 40% away win rate, combined with a clean record at this ground in recent meetings, gives the hosts a genuine edge that the market appears to be underpricing.
Key Points:
- Trabzonspor's home record: 11W 3D 6L in 20 games, 1.8 ppg, 1.7 scored, 1.0 conceded
- Beşiktaş's away record: 8W 5D 7L in 20 games, 1.45 ppg, 1.35 scored, 1.2 conceded
- Recent H2H at this venue: Trabzonspor 0W 1D 0L (no losses)
- Beşiktaş's recent form is stronger: 7W in last 10, 2.5 goals per game
- Market prices Beşiktaş as favourite at 2.3 (43.48% implied)
Verdict: I'm backing the Trabzonspor home win at 2.96.