VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Prediction — Elo & form

VfB Stuttgart arrive at this Bundesliga fixture in strong command of their own ground, and the numbers tell a clear story. Over their last 20 home games, Stuttgart have won 12, drawn 4 and lost 4, scoring 2.15 per game while conceding just 0.9. Their last five matches across all venues show 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss, with 11 goals scored and only 2 conceded — three clean sheets in that span. The 5-0 friendly win over Greuther Fürth on 1 October and the 3-0 away victory at Slovan Bratislava on 14 October underline a side that is scoring freely and keeping the ball out of their own net.

Borussia Mönchengladbach, by contrast, are in the opposite position. Their last five matches have produced 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses, with 6 goals scored and 14 conceded. They have not kept a clean sheet in any of those five games. Their away record over 20 games is 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses, with 1.85 goals conceded per game. The 0-5 defeat at Freiburg on 12 September and the 1-2 home loss to Hoffenheim on 18 October bookend a stretch in which the visitors have been outscored in every competitive fixture.

The head-to-head adds weight to the home side's case. In the only meeting within the last 12 months, Stuttgart won 3-0 at Mönchengladbach's ground on 25 January. At Stuttgart's own ground, the older meetings show 2 wins and 1 loss for the hosts. The xG figures from recent matches paint the same picture: Stuttgart have generated 1.94 expected goals per game over their last four matches with xG data, while conceding 1.27 per game. Mönchengladbach have created just 0.83 per game over their last three such matches but have faced 2.35 per game against them.

The counter-argument is that Stuttgart's most recent competitive result was a 1-1 draw with Atletico Madrid on 20 October, and they lost 0-1 at Hamburger SV on 17 October. The 5-0 win over Greuther Fürth was a friendly, so the competitive form is slightly less dominant than the aggregate suggests. Mönchengladbach did score in four of their last five matches, so they are not without a goal threat.

Key Points:

• Stuttgart have won 12 of their last 20 home games, scoring 2.15 per game and conceding 0.9

• Mönchengladbach have won 0 of their last 5 matches, conceding 14 goals in the process

• Stuttgart won 3-0 at Mönchengladbach in January; at Stuttgart's ground the older meetings favour the hosts

• Stuttgart's xG for (1.94 per game) and against (1.27 per game) contrast sharply with Mönchengladbach's 0.83 for and 2.35 against

• The only blemish in Stuttgart's recent run is the 1-1 draw with Atletico Madrid and the 0-1 loss at HSV

Verdict: VfB Stuttgart home win at 1.43.