The upcoming League Two clash between Crewe and Oldham on 2026-03-28 presents a fascinating contrast in recent form. While both teams sit closely in the standings—Oldham at 9th (61 points) and Crewe at 10th (60 points)—their performance metrics tell a divergent story. Oldham arrives in exceptional shape. Over their last 10 games, they have won 8 matches and drawn 2, remaining unbeaten. Their defensive record is particularly striking: they have conceded only 2 goals in those 10 games, averaging just 0.20 goals conceded per game. Offensively, they are averaging 1.90 goals per game. On the road, Oldham has won 3 of their last 4 away games (75% win rate), scoring 2.25 goals per game away. This level of consistency suggests a team firing on all cylinders. In contrast, Crewe's form is mixed. Their last 10 games show 5 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses. At home, they have won 50% of their last 4 matches, but their home goal output is lower, averaging 0.75 goals scored per game. Their defensive record at home shows they concede 1.25 goals per game, which is significantly higher than Oldham's away defensive stats. Head-to-head history is relatively balanced, with Oldham holding a slight edge (4 wins to Crewe's 3 in 9 meetings). The last meeting ended in a 0-0 draw. However, current form often outweighs historical records when one team is on a significant run. The goal expectancy data further supports the away side. The Poisson inputs suggest Oldham has a higher goal expectation (1.75) compared to Crewe (0.50). With Oldham averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.20 conceded in their last 10, the probability of an Oldham victory appears undervalued by the market. Key Points: - Oldham is unbeaten in their last 10 games (8 wins, 2 draws). - Oldham's away win rate is 75% (3 wins in 4 away games). - Crewe's home scoring rate is low at 0.75 goals per game. - Oldham's defensive record is elite with only 2 goals conceded in 10 games. Our pick: Away Win.