Alaves host Mallorca in a crucial La Liga clash on April 25, 2026. Both teams are struggling to secure victories in their respective home and away venues, setting the stage for a potential stalemate. Alaves' home form is notably stagnant. In their last four home fixtures, the team has failed to win, recording three draws and one loss. This 75% draw rate at home is a significant signal. Their overall recent form shows 5 draws in the last 10 games, highlighting a tendency towards deadlock. Goal expectancy data suggests Alaves averages 1.25 goals scored and 1.75 goals conceded at home, totaling 3.00 goals per game. Mallorca presents a similar picture on the road. In their last four away games, they have won zero matches, with one draw and three losses. Their away goal expectancy is 0.75 scored and 2.25 conceded, also summing to 3.00 total goals. This defensive vulnerability combined with Alaves' inability to close out games suggests a match where both teams might cancel each other out. Head-to-head history further supports a draw. In the last five meetings, three ended in a draw (60% draw rate). The most recent encounter ended 0-1 to Mallorca, but Alaves has won two of the last four home meetings against them. The current odds for a draw sit at 3.25, implying a 30.8% probability. Given Alaves' 75% home draw rate and the 60% H2H draw rate, the true probability appears significantly higher, offering substantial value. Goal markets show less value. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 2.20, but the fair probability is only 43.15%, offering minimal edge. BTTS markets also lack the required 6% edge threshold. However, the Draw market presents a clear opportunity where the bookmakers' implied probability underestimates the likelihood of a stalemate based on recent form and H2H trends. With Alaves unable to win at home and Mallorca unable to win away, the most logical outcome is a shared point. The odds of 3.25 provide a significant edge over the implied probability. This is a high-confidence pick based on multiple confirmatory signals: home/away winless runs and historical draw frequency. **Key Points:** - Alaves: 0 wins in last 4 home games (75% draw rate). - Mallorca: 0 wins in last 4 away games. - H2H: 60% draw rate in last 5 meetings. - Goal Expectancy: 3.00 total goals (Over 2.5 edge is low). - Draw odds: 3.25 (Implied 30.8%, Estimated >50%). The recommended bet is Draw.