In the Segunda División, Eibar host Burgos on March 15th in a match that pits 10th place Eibar against 7th place Burgos. While Burgos hold a better league position with 46 points compared to Eibar's 41 points, the recent form suggests Eibar are the stronger side on this occasion. Eibar have been exceptional at home, securing a 100% win rate in their last five home games. They are averaging 2.00 points per game overall, with their home performance yielding 1.80 goals scored per game and only 0.60 goals conceded. Burgos, conversely, have shown vulnerability on the road. In their last five away games, they have managed a 20% win rate, with 40% of those matches ending in a loss. Their away goal output is minimal, averaging just 0.25 goals scored per away game, while conceding 1.00 per match. Although Burgos boast a 50% clean sheet rate over their last 10 games, their defensive resilience drops significantly when away from home. Eibar's home defense has been tight, conceding just 0.60 goals per home game in the last 10 matches. Head-to-head statistics provide further support for the home side. Eibar hold a 75% win rate at home against Burgos, with 3 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss in their home record against this specific opponent. While the total goals in recent H2H matches have been low, Eibar's current attacking form at home (1.80 goals per game) suggests they can break that trend against a Burgos side that struggles to score away (0.25 goals per game). The goal expectancies calculated for this fixture are 1.40 for Eibar and 0.42 for Burgos, totaling 1.82 expected goals. This points towards a tight contest, but Eibar's ability to convert chances at home gives them the edge. The market offers Eibar at 1.95 for the win. Given the 100% home win streak and the disparity in away form, the implied probability is lower than the actual likelihood. We see value in backing the home win. Key Points: - Eibar 100% Home Win Rate in last 5 games. - Burgos only 20% Away Win Rate in last 5 games. - H2H Home Record: Eibar 75% win rate vs Burgos. - Eibar Home Goals: 1.80 PPG vs Burgos Away Goals: 0.25 PPG. - Odds 1.95 provide value on Home Win. Summary: We recommend the Home Win.