Match Timeline
L. Gullick⚽
C. Gauci⚽K. Evans⚽T. McLean⚽L. Gullick⚽Head-to-Head
📈 Team Form & Statistics
ELO comparison
Pre-match ratings
 Llantwit MajorHome | Rating |  Caerau (Ely)Away |
|---|---|---|
| Strength | ||
| 1,524 | Overall | 1,594.2 |
| 1,551.3 | Match venue | 1,490.2 |
| 1,551.3 | At home | 1,559.2 |
| 1,497.8 | Away | 1,490.2 |
| Attack & defence | ||
| 1,510.4 | Attack | 1,598.5 |
| 1,538.7 | Defence | 1,563.8 |
| 1,480.8 | Home attack | 1,563.7 |
| 1,495.2 | Away attack | 1,543.8 |
| 1,585.7 | Home defence | 1,551.7 |
| 1,519.4 | Away defence | 1,511.4 |
| Match profile | ||
| 1,785 | Goal environment | 1,828.3 |
| 1,570 | Home goals | 1,635 |
| 1,715 | Away goals | 1,693.3 |
| 1,500 | Possession | 1,500 |
| Specialist ratings | ||
| 1,500 | Set-piece attack | 1,500 |
| 1,500 | Set-piece defence | 1,500 |
| 1,501.4 | Close games | 1,458.4 |
| 1,524.5 | Winning margin | 1,640.6 |
Match venue compares Llantwit Major at home with Caerau (Ely) away. All ratings are within this league.
Higher goal environment ratings mean higher-scoring games, not necessarily a stronger team. A starting league rating is 1500.
📝 Match Preview
Caerau (Ely) arrive at Llantwit Major in the form of their lives, riding a remarkable run that sees them scoring at a rate of 2.8 goals per game across their last 10 fixtures. That tally includes emphatic victories such as 5-0 at Baglan Dragons, 3-0 against Treowen Stars, and 4-1 at Afan Lido. Their goal difference of +15 over the last 10 games dwarfs Llantwit Major's +4, and their 1.90 points per game is significantly higher than the hosts' 1.60. Llantwit Major have been inconsistent of late, losing their last two league games 1-4 to Afan Lido and 2-3 to Ammanford AFC. While they have shown they can score—netting 21 goals in 10 games—their defence has been porous, conceding 17 times with just one clean sheet. Their home record shows a 50% win rate with 2.0 goals scored per game but 1.75 conceded per game. Caerau (Ely) are particularly dangerous on the road. Their away form mirrors their home output with a 60% win rate and an astonishing 3.0 goals scored per game on the bounce. They've kept four clean sheets in 10 games (40% rate) compared to Llantwit's single clean sheet (10% rate), highlighting the gap in defensive organisation. The head-to-head record is balanced at 2 wins each and 2 draws from 6 meetings, with the last encounter ending 0-0. However, that was back in September, and Caerau's attacking form since then has been transformational. With goal expectancies of 1.70 for Llantwit and 2.38 for Caerau, a total of 4.08 expected goals suggests a lively encounter. The odds reflect Caerau's superiority, with them priced at 1.65 for the away win. The fair probability sits around 60.6%, and given their form, goal output, and defensive solidity, I rate their chances at approximately 65%. That gives us a meaningful edge on the away win. **Key Points:** - Caerau (Ely) averaging 2.8 goals per game in last 10, compared to Llantwit's 2.1 - Caerau's goal difference (+15) significantly superior to Llantwit's (+4) - Caerau 60% win rate away from home with 3.0 goals scored per game - Llantwit lost last two league games by combined 7-3 - Caerau 40% clean sheet rate vs Llantwit's 10% - Goal expectancy of 4.08 suggests an attacking fixture - Fair probability for away win around 60.6%, I rate it at 65% **The Bet:** Caerau (Ely) Away Win at 1.65
Read Full Preview →