Woking host Altrincham at the Kingsfield Stadium in what promises to be an entertaining National League fixture. The Lions sit 11th with 53 points while the Robins are 15th on 47 points, both teams looking to push for playoff contention or avoid the drop respectively. Woking's home form has been particularly impressive, winning 75% of their last four home games while averaging 2.25 goals per game. Their recent results include comfortable victories - a 3-2 win over Aldershot Town and a 4-1 demolition of Brackley Town. However, they've suffered back-to-back defeats, losing 0-1 to York and drawing 1-1 at Southend in their last two matches. Altrincham's away record tells a different story. The Robins have won just 20% of their last five away games while conceding an alarming 2.0 goals per game on the road. Their recent away results include defeats to Solihull Moors (1-0) and Scunthorpe (2-1), though they did secure a 1-0 victory at home to Southend. The head-to-head record between these sides strongly favors goals. In their nine meetings, six matches have seen Over 2.5 Goals, while Both Teams To Score has landed in seven of those fixtures. Their last meeting in October 2025 finished 3-1 to Woking. Statistical analysis points to a high-scoring affair. The goal expectancy models suggest 2.12 goals for Woking and 1.23 for Altrincham, combining for 3.35 expected goals. This aligns perfectly with Woking's potent home attack averaging 2.25 goals per game and Altrincham's leaky away defense surrendering 2.0 goals per match. The betting market prices Over 2.5 Goals at 1.70, implying a 58.8% probability. Given the combined goal expectancy of 3.35, the historical H2H trend of 67% Over 2.5, and the attacking/defensive profiles of both sides, I estimate the true probability closer to 65%. This creates genuine value. The home side's scoring prowess at Kingsfield, combined with Altrincham's inability to keep clean sheets away from home (just 20% clean sheet rate on the road), makes the goals market the most compelling option. **Key Points:** • Woking averaging 2.25 goals per home game this season • Altrincham conceding 2.0 goals per away game • H2H: 67% of matches have seen Over 2.5 Goals • Goal expectancy: 3.35 combined goals • Both teams scored in 78% of H2H meetings **Summary:** The statistical evidence strongly supports Over 2.5 Goals at 1.70 as the pick of the day.