Match Timeline
T. Parker⚽D. Griffiths⚽J. Bahumaid⚽D. Griffiths🟥Head-to-Head
📈 Team Form & Statistics
ELO comparison
Pre-match ratings
 Caerau (Ely)Home | Rating |  llanelli AFCAway |
|---|---|---|
| Strength | ||
| 1,570.3 | Overall | 1,588.5 |
| 1,556.5 | Match venue | 1,610 |
| 1,556.5 | At home | 1,596.1 |
| 1,495.6 | Away | 1,610 |
| Attack & defence | ||
| 1,600.1 | Attack | 1,537.6 |
| 1,518.8 | Defence | 1,562.4 |
| 1,558.9 | Home attack | 1,569.1 |
| 1,566.8 | Away attack | 1,528.4 |
| 1,536.2 | Home defence | 1,587.6 |
| 1,492.4 | Away defence | 1,548.4 |
| Match profile | ||
| 1,873.3 | Goal environment | 1,925 |
| 1,651.7 | Home goals | 1,696.7 |
| 1,721.7 | Away goals | 1,728.3 |
| 1,500 | Possession | 1,500 |
| Specialist ratings | ||
| 1,500 | Set-piece attack | 1,500 |
| 1,500 | Set-piece defence | 1,500 |
| 1,468.2 | Close games | 1,593.7 |
| 1,592.5 | Winning margin | 1,571.3 |
Match venue compares Caerau (Ely) at home with llanelli AFC away. All ratings are within this league.
Higher goal environment ratings mean higher-scoring games, not necessarily a stronger team. A starting league rating is 1500.
📝 Match Preview
The FAW Championship matchup between Caerau (Ely) and llanelli AFC presents a fascinating study in contrasting form. While the head-to-head history heavily favors llanelli AFC—who have won all five previous meetings—the current season's data tells a much different story. llanelli AFC is currently in a state of defensive freefall, sitting in 15th place with a staggering 32 goals conceded in just seven matches. Their away record is particularly concerning, with an 80% loss rate and a high average of 3.60 goals conceded per game away from home. They have failed to record a single clean sheet all season. Caerau (Ely), while sitting in 11th place, offers a more stable platform. They maintain a scoring average of 1.80 goals per game and have shown a tendency to be involved in high-scoring affairs. Their home performance shows a 60% draw rate, but their ability to find the back of the net remains consistent. When we look at the head-to-head trends, every single one of the last five meetings has resulted in Over 2.5 Goals, with 80% of those matches seeing both teams find the net. From a mathematical perspective, the goal expectancy for this fixture is high. With a Poisson-derived expectancy of 2.70 goals for the home side and 1.60 for the away side, the total goal environment suggests a high-scoring game. The market's odds for Both Teams to Score - Yes at 1.86 imply a probability of roughly 53.8%, whereas the Poisson model suggests a much higher probability of 74.4%. This creates a significant value edge for bettors looking to capitalize on llanelli's porous defense and Caerau's consistent scoring output. Key Points: - llanelli AFC has conceded 3.20 goals per game on average, with a 0% clean sheet rate this season. - Caerau (Ely) averages 1.80 goals per game, providing a reliable source of goals at home. - Head-to-head history shows 100% of matches have exceeded 2.5 goals. - Poisson goal expectancy is 4.30 total goals, significantly higher than the market's Over 2.5 goals price suggests. - BTTS Yes has a calculated value edge of over 20% based on current defensive trends and goal expectations. The chosen bet is Both Teams to Score - Yes.
Read Full Preview →