Match Timeline
E. Meconi🟨
V. PariginiO. Barry🟨F. Carbone⚽A. Signorini🔄V. Parigini🟨E. Meconi🔄L. Piomboni🔄V. Parigini🔄D. Piroli🔄M. Spina🔄F. D'Andrea🔄A. Castaldo🔄F. Tosku🔄G. Rosaia🔄Head-to-Head
📈 Team Form & Statistics
ELO comparison
Pre-match ratings
 GubbioHome | Rating |  Ostia MareAway |
|---|---|---|
| Strength | ||
| 1,529.3 | Overall | 1,454.3 |
| 1,545.4 | Match venue | 1,490.2 |
| 1,545.4 | At home | 1,471.8 |
| 1,482.9 | Away | 1,490.2 |
| Attack & defence | ||
| 1,428.7 | Attack | 1,488.4 |
| 1,563.8 | Defence | 1,483.4 |
| 1,442.4 | Home attack | 1,480 |
| 1,396.3 | Away attack | 1,506.2 |
| 1,597.9 | Home defence | 1,495.2 |
| 1,549.2 | Away defence | 1,487.9 |
| Match profile | ||
| 1,168.3 | Goal environment | 1,501.7 |
| 1,276.7 | Home goals | 1,496.7 |
| 1,391.7 | Away goals | 1,505 |
| 1,500 | Possession | 1,500 |
| Specialist ratings | ||
| 1,500 | Set-piece attack | 1,500 |
| 1,500 | Set-piece defence | 1,500 |
| 1,538.9 | Close games | 1,457 |
| 1,521.3 | Winning margin | 1,454.6 |
Match venue compares Gubbio at home with Ostia Mare away. All ratings are within this league.
Higher goal environment ratings mean higher-scoring games, not necessarily a stronger team. A starting league rating is 1500.
📝 Match Preview
Gubbio enter this Serie C - Girone B fixture as significant favorites, looking to capitalize on a defense that has struggled immensely for Ostia Mare. The home side currently sits in 10th place, but their performance at their own ground tells a much stronger story. Gubbio has maintained a formidable 75.00% win rate over their last four home games, averaging a massive 2.75 goals scored per match while conceding only 0.75. This clinical efficiency at home provides a perfect platform for them to dismantle a bottom-tier opponent. In contrast, Ostia Mare is enduring a dismal campaign, currently languishing in 17th place. Their defensive record is one of the most glaring weaknesses in the league; they have failed to keep a single clean sheet in their last 10 matches (0.00% clean sheet rate). Furthermore, they have conceded an average of 1.90 goals per game over that same period. While they managed a 2-1 away win against Vis Pesaro recently, their overall trend of 7 losses in 10 games highlights a lack of consistency and defensive organization. When you combine Gubbio's high home scoring output with Ostia Mare's inability to prevent goals, the value on a home victory becomes clear. Gubbio's goal expectancy at home is 2.38, while Ostia Mare's away scoring average is a lowly 1.33. Given the disparity in league positions and the stark difference in defensive stability, Gubbio should be able to secure all three points. While the Over 2.5 Goals market is tempting given the expected goal count of 3.42, the current odds of 2.08 do not offer a significant enough edge over the fair probability. Therefore, the most reliable value lies in the match result, where Gubbio's home dominance meets Ostia Mare's defensive fragility. **Key Points:** - Gubbio boasts a 75.00% win rate in their last 4 home fixtures. - Ostia Mare has failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last 10 matches. - Gubbio averages 2.75 goals per game at home, while Ostia Mare concedes 2.00 goals away. - Ostia Mare is currently in the relegation zone (17th) with only 3 points from 5 games. **Bet Selection:** The best value on this fixture is a **Home Win**. Recommended Bet: HOME_WIN
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