Llantwit Major vs Caerau (Ely) Prediction - 28th March 2026

Caerau (Ely) arrive at Llantwit Major in the form of their lives, riding a remarkable run that sees them scoring at a rate of 2.8 goals per game across their last 10 fixtures. That tally includes emphatic victories such as 5-0 at Baglan Dragons, 3-0 against Treowen Stars, and 4-1 at Afan Lido. Their goal difference of +15 over the last 10 games dwarfs Llantwit Major's +4, and their 1.90 points per game is significantly higher than the hosts' 1.60. Llantwit Major have been inconsistent of late, losing their last two league games 1-4 to Afan Lido and 2-3 to Ammanford AFC. While they have shown they can score—netting 21 goals in 10 games—their defence has been porous, conceding 17 times with just one clean sheet. Their home record shows a 50% win rate with 2.0 goals scored per game but 1.75 conceded per game. Caerau (Ely) are particularly dangerous on the road. Their away form mirrors their home output with a 60% win rate and an astonishing 3.0 goals scored per game on the bounce. They've kept four clean sheets in 10 games (40% rate) compared to Llantwit's single clean sheet (10% rate), highlighting the gap in defensive organisation. The head-to-head record is balanced at 2 wins each and 2 draws from 6 meetings, with the last encounter ending 0-0. However, that was back in September, and Caerau's attacking form since then has been transformational. With goal expectancies of 1.70 for Llantwit and 2.38 for Caerau, a total of 4.08 expected goals suggests a lively encounter. The odds reflect Caerau's superiority, with them priced at 1.65 for the away win. The fair probability sits around 60.6%, and given their form, goal output, and defensive solidity, I rate their chances at approximately 65%. That gives us a meaningful edge on the away win. **Key Points:** - Caerau (Ely) averaging 2.8 goals per game in last 10, compared to Llantwit's 2.1 - Caerau's goal difference (+15) significantly superior to Llantwit's (+4) - Caerau 60% win rate away from home with 3.0 goals scored per game - Llantwit lost last two league games by combined 7-3 - Caerau 40% clean sheet rate vs Llantwit's 10% - Goal expectancy of 4.08 suggests an attacking fixture - Fair probability for away win around 60.6%, I rate it at 65% **The Bet:** Caerau (Ely) Away Win at 1.65