Angers vs Nice Prediction — Elo & form

Nice arrive at Angers's ground carrying the momentum of four wins in their last five matches, scoring 12 goals and conceding just 7. Their last two victories — a 5–2 demolition of Rennes at home on 30 October and a 2–1 win at Stade Brestois 29 on 23 October — have kept them in excellent form, and their points-per-game over the last 10 matches stands at 1.5, comfortably ahead of Angers' 1.1.

Angers, by contrast, have lost three of their last five. The 0–2 defeat at Lyon on 1 November was the latest in a stretch that includes a 2–5 home loss to Marseille on 18 October and a 1–5 away defeat at Stade Brestois 29 on 10 October. Their only win in that period was a 2–0 over Estac Troyes on 19 September, and they have conceded 12 goals in those five matches at a rate of 2.4 per game. Their home record over 20 games — 7 wins, 5 draws, 8 losses — looks respectable, but the last two home fixtures (a 0–0 draw with Lorient on 25 October and the 2–5 Marseille defeat) tell a very different story.

The head-to-head at this venue is telling. In the most recent meeting at Angers's ground on 14 March 2026, Nice won 2–0. The other recent meeting, at Nice's ground on 7 December 2025, went to Angers 1–0, so the last two meetings have been split one apiece. Older meetings at this ground — a 1–4 Nice win in September 2024 and a 1–1 draw in April 2023 — are historical and do not carry the same weight, but they do show that Angers have struggled to hold out against Nice at home.

The matchup tables highlight the contrast. Over their last 10 matches, Nice have scored 1.3 goals per game and conceded 1.2, while Angers have scored 1.2 and conceded 1.9. In the home-versus-away comparison across 20 games each, Angers average 1.2 goals scored at home, but Nice's away scoring is just 0.75 per game.

The counter-argument is straightforward: Nice's away record over 20 games is 4 wins, 6 draws and 10 losses, with just 0.9 points per game. That is a poor record, and it suggests the away environment can still take its toll. Angers, meanwhile, have won 7 of their 20 home games and kept 5 clean sheets. The 0–0 draw with Lorient on 25 October showed that Angers can at least hold a low-scoring game at home, and the fact that Nice have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last five matches means the visitors are not keeping the ball out.

Still, the weight of evidence favours the visitors. Nice's recent form is the strongest of the two sides, Angers are leaking goals at an alarming rate, and the most recent meeting at this ground ended 0–2. The market prices Nice's win at 2.12, implying a 47.17% chance. My own reading of the form, the head-to-head and the goal data puts the visitors' probability of winning at roughly 50%, which sits above the market's figure and gives the bet a positive edge.

Key Points:

• Nice have won 4 of their last 5, scoring 12 and conceding 7; Angers have lost 3 of 5, conceding 12.

• The last meeting at Angers's ground (14 March 2026) ended 0–2 to Nice.

• Nice's last 10 points-per-game (1.5) is well ahead of Angers' (1.1).

• Nice's away record over 20 games (4W 6D 10L) is a genuine concern.

• Angers have conceded 2.4 goals per game in their last five matches.

Verdict: I'm backing the away win for Nice at 2.12.