Inter vs Fiorentina Prediction — Elo & form

Inter arrive at this Serie A fixture in commanding form, having won their last two matches and four of their last five. The most recent result was a 1–0 home victory over Shakhtar Donetsk in the Champions League on 21 October, and before that a 3–1 away win at Bologna on 17 October. Their home record over the last 20 games tells the story: 15 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses, with an average of 2.6 goals scored per game and 1.3 conceded. In their last 10 matches across all venues, Inter have won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2, scoring 2.4 goals per game. They have not failed to score in any of those 10 games.

The head-to-head at this venue reinforces the picture. In the only recent meeting within the last 12 months at Inter's ground, the Nerazzurri won 3–0 on 29 October 2025. The older meeting at the same venue, on 10 February 2025, also ended in an Inter victory, 2–1. Across the full 32-game head-to-head spanning 13 years, Inter have won 16 of those meetings, though the older results dilute the current picture and should be treated as historical context.

Fiorentina, by contrast, are in a difficult patch. They lost their last two matches: 1–3 at home to Como on 18 October and 1–2 away to Genoa on 10 October. Over their last 10 games, the Viola have won just 3, drawn 2 and lost 5, averaging 1.1 points per game. Their away record over 20 games shows 9 wins, 3 draws and 8 losses, with 1.5 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game. In their last 5 matches, Fiorentina have scored 10 and conceded 8, managing only 1 clean sheet.

The counter-argument is that Fiorentina are not without quality on the road. Their away record includes 9 wins in 20 games, and in their last 5 matches they have scored in every game. The head-to-head also produced a 1–1 draw at Fiorentina's ground in March 2026, showing the fixture can be competitive. Furthermore, Inter's only recent defeat was a 3–4 loss to Club Brugge in the Champions League on 13 October, a reminder that even in good form the Nerazzurri can be vulnerable in high-pressure matches.

However, the weight of evidence points firmly to Inter. Their 75% home win rate, the 3–0 recent head-to-head result at this ground, and Fiorentina's current losing run all align. Inter's xG figures in recent matches (2.81 per game for, 1.54 per game against) suggest a team creating well and keeping opponents quiet, while Fiorentina's xG output in recent games has been 1.59 per game, well below Inter's output.

Key Points:

• Inter have won 15 of their last 20 home games, averaging 2.6 goals scored per game

• Fiorentina lost their last two matches and have won just 3 of their last 10

• The recent head-to-head at Inter's ground ended 3–0 to the home side

• Inter's xG output of 2.81 per game in recent matches contrasts with Fiorentina's 1.59 per game

• Fiorentina's away record shows 8 losses in 20 games, with 1.65 conceded per game

Verdict: Inter home win at 1.41.