QPR vs Burnley Prediction — Elo & form

QPR sit comfortably in control of their home record heading into this Championship clash with Burnley, and the numbers tell a clear story. Across their last 20 home games, QPR have won 9, drawn 4 and lost 7, averaging 1.85 goals per game while conceding just 1.4. Their last two home fixtures have been emphatic: a 5–0 demolition of Swansea on 24 October and a 4–1 victory over Derby on 14 October. That scoring output at home is the backbone of the case for a QPR win.

Burnley, by contrast, travel with a record that raises concerns. In their last 20 away games, they have won just 2, drawn 5 and lost 13, averaging 1.05 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game. Their most recent outing was a 0–0 draw at home against Portsmouth on 31 October, and before that a 1–4 defeat at Lincoln on 24 October. The 13 losses in 20 away games is the single most telling figure in this fixture.

The head-to-head between these two sides is entirely historical, with no meetings within the last 12 months. The five older meetings span from 2016 to 2025, and while Burnley won three of those five, the most recent at QPR's ground in April 2025 ended 0–5. Given the age of those results, they carry limited weight, and the current form and venue records are the better guide.

The counter-argument is QPR's recent away form. They lost 1–4 at Southampton on 31 October and 0–3 at Birmingham on 17 October, and their last five games overall contain two defeats. However, those were both on the road, and QPR's home record over 20 games shows a very different picture. The 1.4 goals conceded per game at home, compared to Burnley's 2.25 conceded per game away, suggests QPR's defence should hold firm while their attack does the damage.

Key Points:

• QPR have won 9 of their last 20 home games, scoring 1.85 per game

• Burnley have won just 2 of their last 20 away games, conceding 2.25 per game

• QPR's last two home games produced 10 goals (5–0, 4–1)

• Burnley's away record includes 13 losses in 20 games

• The head-to-head is historical only, with no meetings in the last 12 months

The evidence points firmly to QPR at home. I'm backing the home win at 2.06.